Jalen Hurts proved himself as a fantasy QB1 in 2022
qbs
ppg
Hurts
Author
Greg Johnson
Published
May 7, 2023
Every fall, millions of Americans compete against their friends, families and coworkers in Fantasy Football. Each participant, dubbed a team manager, drafts players in different football skill positions from different NFL teams in hopes that the players will lead him or her to victory. Players gain points for the manager in different ways. Touchdowns, yards and catches, for example, are all worth different values for the manager, and every week, the manager competes against a different manager in their league to score the most points.
The position that scores the most points is typically the quarterback. Many managers try to draft quarterbacks that put up good stats such as Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the early rounds, but in 2022, there was a quarterback who outperformed everyone else in many ways that led many managers to the fantasy playoffs.
When it comes to the ideal fantasy quarterback, athleticism and the ability to both pass and run the ball are much more important than winning games for their team. In fact, whether players’ NFL teams win or lose is irrelevant toward fantasy points. NFL players, and quarterbacks especially, cannot play forever, especially with good fantasy stats. In 2022, the top four point scoring quarterbacks in fantasy football were all under the age of 28, and they outscored the rest of the field significantly.
Code
library(tidyverse)library(rvest)library(ggbeeswarm)library(ggrepel)library(cowplot)url <-"https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/fantasy.htm"fantasy22setup <- url %>%read_html() %>%html_nodes(xpath ='//*[@id="div_fantasy"]') %>%html_table(header=FALSE)fantasy22 <- fantasy22setup[[1]] %>%rename(Rk=X1, Player=X2,Tm=X3,FantPos=X4,Age=X5,G=X6,GS=X7,Cmp=X8,PassAtt=X9,PassYds=X10,PassTD=X11,Int=X12,RushAtt=X13,RushYds=X14,RushYPA=X15,RushTD=X16,RecTgt=X17,Rec=X18,RecYds=X19,RecYPR=X20,RecTD=X21,Fmb=X22,FmbL=X23,RecRushTD=X24,TwoPCMade=X25,TwoPCPass=X26,FantPt=X27,PPR=X28,DKPt=X29,FDPt=X30,VBD=X31,PosRank=X32,OvRank=X33 ) %>%mutate_at(5:33, as.numeric)fantasy22withoutgarbage <- fantasy22 %>%filter(Rk !="Rk"& G !="Games") fantasydata22 <- fantasy22withoutgarbage %>%mutate(Player=gsub("\\*+","",Player),Player=gsub("\\+","",Player))fantasystats22 <- fantasydata22 %>%filter(PPR>0)jh <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(Player =="Jalen Hurts")pm <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(Player =="Patrick Mahomes")ja <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(Player =="Josh Allen")jb <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(Player =="Joe Burrow")topplayers <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(G>8)qbs <- fantasystats22 %>%filter(FantPos=="QB", G>8)%>%top_n(20, wt=PPR/G)ggplot() +geom_point(data=qbs, aes(x=Age, y=PPR), color="grey") +geom_point(data=jh, aes(x=Age, y=PPR), color="red")+geom_point(data=jb, aes(x=Age, y=PPR), color="red")+geom_point(data=ja, aes(x=Age, y=PPR), color="red")+geom_point(data=pm, aes(x=Age, y=PPR), color="red")+geom_text(aes(x=30.5, y=425, label="Patrick Mahomes"), color="black") +geom_text(aes(x=28, y=395, label="Josh Allen"), color="black") +geom_text(aes(x=24, y=365, label="Jalen Hurts"), color="black") +geom_text(aes(x=28, y=345, label="Joe Burrow"), color="black") +labs(title="Go with a young quarterback in fantasy",subtitle="In 2022, the top four quarterbacks were clearly set apart from the others, and they \nwere all under the age of 28. ",x="Age", y="Total PPR Points",caption="Source: Football Reference | By Greg Johnson") +theme_minimal() +theme(plot.title =element_text(size =16, face ="bold"),axis.title =element_text(size =8), plot.subtitle =element_text(size=10), panel.grid.minor =element_blank(),plot.title.position="plot" )
Not every quarterback played in all 17 games on their schedule last season, so looking at per game averages will be more accurate in determining which quarterback performed the best last season.
When it came to points per game, Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks.
Code
ggplot() +geom_bar(data=qbs, aes(x=reorder(Player, PPR/G), weight=PPR/G), fill="grey" ) +geom_bar(data=jh, aes(x=reorder(Player, PPR/G), weight=PPR/G), fill="#004C45" ) +coord_flip()+labs(title="How did quarterback perform each game?",subtitle="Hurts led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2022.",x="", y="PPR Points per Game",caption="Source: Football Reference | By Greg Johnson") +theme_minimal() +theme(plot.title =element_text(size =16, face ="bold"),axis.title =element_text(size =8), plot.subtitle =element_text(size=10), panel.grid.minor =element_blank(),plot.title.position="plot" )
Why did Hurts lead all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game? He is not as flashy as Mahomes or Allen in terms of passing yards and touchdowns after all.
What brought Hurts over the hump in points per game was leading all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns and only throwing six interceptions on the season. These two stats can make or break a quarterback’s week in fantasy, and Hurts is one of only two quarterbacks (the other being the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones) to be in the top six of both stats.
Code
rushtdqbs <- qbs %>%top_n(6, wt=RushTD)intqbs <- qbs %>%top_n(6, wt=-Int)bar1 <-ggplot() +geom_bar(data=rushtdqbs, aes(x=reorder(Player, RushTD), weight=RushTD), fill="grey") +geom_bar(data=jh, aes(x=reorder(Player, RushTD), weight=RushTD), fill="#004C54") +coord_flip() +labs(title="Jalen Hurts puts up great fantasy stats",subtitle="He led quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns and was third least in interceptions.",x="", y="Rush TD\n",caption="") +theme_minimal() +theme(plot.title =element_text(size =16, face ="bold"),axis.title =element_text(size =8), plot.subtitle =element_text(size=10), panel.grid.minor =element_blank(),plot.title.position="plot" )bar2 <-ggplot() +geom_bar(data=intqbs, aes(x=reorder(Player, -Int), weight=Int), fill="grey") +geom_bar(data=jh, aes(x=reorder(Player, -Int), weight=Int), fill="#004C54") +coord_flip() +labs(title="",subtitle="",x="", y="Interceptions thrown\n(minimum 9 games played)",caption="Source: Football Reference | By Greg Johnson") +theme_minimal() +theme(plot.title =element_text(size =16, face ="bold"),axis.title =element_text(size =8), plot.subtitle =element_text(size=10), panel.grid.minor =element_blank() )plot_grid(bar1, bar2)
Hurts was overlooked by many in 2022 fantasy drafts, and although Mahomes and Allen may still go before Hurts, expect him to be one of the first quarterbacks off the board in 2023.
